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OCTOBER 29,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

NOTHING TO SEE, NOTHING TO SEE – FROM CBS CHICAGO:   CHICAGO (CBS) — Susie Sallee was buried in 1998. Yet records show she voted in Chicago 12 years later.  Victor Crosswell died in 1994, but records show he’s voted six times since then.  And then there’s Floyd Stevens. Records show he’s voted 11 times since his death in 1993.  “It’s crazy,” Sharon Stevens Anderson, Stevens’ daughter, tells CBS 2’s Pam Zekman. “I don’t see how people can be able to do something like that and get away with it.”  Those are just a few of the cases CBS 2 Investigators found by merging Chicago Board of Election voter histories with the death master file from the Social Security Administration.  In all, the analysis showed 119 dead people have voted a total of 229 times in Chicago in the last decade.  And I say their citizenship should be praised.

HUMA AT HOME – FROM THE DAILY MAIL:   One day after Hillary Clinton's campaign was rocked after the FBI sensationally reopened its investigation during its probe of Anthony Weiner sexting a 15-year-old girl, his estranged wife was huddled up at her New York City apartment.  Huma Abedin remained home on Saturday, after the online sexting habits of her husband, Anthony Weiner, upended her longtime boss's presidential campaign.   A solemn-looking Abedin could be seen inside her Gramercy Park apartment in loungewear as she spent time with her mother and sister.  On Friday, the FBI revealed that it had found government-related emails on a laptop Abedin shared with her disgraced, former Congressman husband Weiner.  Detectives had seized the laptop, which contains 'tens of thousands of emails', in a separate investigation involving alleged sexts Weiner sent to a 15-year-old, first exposed by DailyMail.com.  A quiet New York weekend planning her legal defense.  How liberal.

COMMON SENSE – FROM CAMPUS REFORM:   Bucking the free-speech zone trend, Kansas State University is telling students they are legally permitted to demonstrate or protest anywhere they want for any cause they want.  “The whole campus is a free speech area,” the K-State Office of General Counsel states in its October legal briefing, noting that as a public university, the school cannot and will not require anyone to register with the university prior to having a public demonstration or protest.  “As a general rule, there is no right to not be offended.”  Even when the speech in question is “controversial or offending,” such as a speaker shouting derogatory remarks at passersby, the school’s attorneys declare emphatically that only behaviors rising to the level of criminality are subject to intervention.  “As a general rule, there is no right to not be offended,” they point out, arguing that “if the government started shutting down speech that is offensive to some, it would end up shutting down all speech, because virtually everything can be offensive to some.”  “As the U.S. Supreme Court stated in 1989 in Texas v. Johnson: ‘If there is a bedrock principle underlying the First Amendment, it is that government may not prohibit the expression of an idea simply because it finds it offensive or disagreeable,’” the briefing notes.  A rare moment of clarity in the academic world.

October 29, 2016       Permalink

MORE TROUBLE AT JUSTICE – AT 1:48 P.M. ET:  The e-mail probe is not the only issue pressing on the Justice Department.  Attorney General Loretta Lynch has another problem, potentially just as explosive.  From the Washington Free Beacon: 

Attorney General Loretta Lynch is declining to comply with an investigation by leading members of Congress about the Obama administration’s secret efforts to send Iran $1.7 billion in cash earlier this year, prompting accusations that Lynch has “pleaded the Fifth” Amendment to avoid incriminating herself over these payments, according to lawmakers and communications exclusively obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) and Rep. Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.) initially presented Lynch in October with a series of questions about how the cash payment to Iran was approved and delivered.

In an Oct. 24 response, Assistant Attorney General Peter Kadzik responded on Lynch’s behalf, refusing to answer the questions and informing the lawmakers that they are barred from publicly disclosing any details about the cash payment, which was bound up in a ransom deal aimed at freeing several American hostages from Iran.

The response from the attorney general’s office is “unacceptable” and provides evidence that Lynch has chosen to “essentially plead the fifth and refuse to respond to inquiries regarding [her] role in providing cash to the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism,” Rubio and Pompeo wrote on Friday in a follow-up letter to Lynch, according to a copy obtained by the Free Beacon.

COMMENT:   This administration believes it's above the law.  It is making arrangements with Iran that could involve the fate of millions of people in years ahead, and yet it is totally unaccountable.  Naturally, not too many in the mainstream media have any problem with this behavior.   Barack's legacy is much more important.

October 29, 2016       Permalink

WEIRD, MAN – AT 12:08 P.M. ET:  As readers know, and for which some of you have criticized me by e-mail, my enthusiasm for Donald Trump has been limited.   But I must report something really spooky, and Trump must be given credit for his instincts.  From Fox: 

The FBI announced Friday it had uncovered news emails related to its investigation of former secretary of state Hillary Clinton‘s handling of classified information while conducting a separate investigation into the pervy sexting habits of former Democratic congressman Anthony Weiner. Weiner of course is the estranged husband of Hillary’s closest aide, Huma Abedin who herself figures prominently in Clinton’s email scandals.

The FBI announced Friday it had uncovered news emails related to its investigation of former secretary of state Hillary Clinton‘s handling of classified information while conducting a separate investigation into the pervy sexting habits of former Democratic congressman Anthony Weiner. Weiner of course is the estranged husband of Hillary’s closest aide, Huma Abedin who herself figures prominently in Clinton’s email scandals.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump saw this coming from a mile away, fingering Weiner as a potential national security threat all the way back in August of 2015. “It came out that Huma Abedin knows all about Hillary’s private illegal emails,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “Huma’s PR husband, Anthony Weiner, will tell the world.”

Abedin recently announced the couple’s separation after Weiner became embroiled in a new series of embarrassing online sexting scandals, including one allegedly involving an underage girl that prompted the FBI to investigate.

One month earlier, Trump said he didn’t like the thought of “Huma going home at night and telling Anthony Weiner all of these secrets.”

Trump was sounding the alarm about Weiner as early September 2013, when he wrote that Huma should “dump the sicko Weiner” because he was “a calamity who is bringing her down with him.”

COMMENT:  Gotta give Trump credit.  He nailed it early. 

October 29, 2016       Permalink

YIKES! – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:   What else do you say?  FBI Director James Comey's letter to Congress yesterday informing the legislative branch that new e-mails relating to the Bureau's probe of Hillary Clinton had turned up, is truly the proverbial "bombshell," which some cheer, and others dread, toward the end of a presidential campaign.

It is a bombshell because it puts a negative focus back on Clinton at the time she least needs it.  According to the mainstream media, she was cruising to victory.

But was she?

A bombshell's impact is made much greater when it reinforces a feeling that is already there.  Those who doubt a candidate become more doubtful.  Those who lean toward the opposition candidate lean further.

And we have now the stunning results of the Washington Post tracking poll, done before the bombshell even exploded.  From The Hill: 

Donald Trump has closed to within reach of Hillary Clinton nationally, one tracking poll has found.

Clinton has 47 percent support to Trump’s 45 percent, according to the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll released Saturday morning.

Clinton led the poll by 12 points as recently as last weekend. Since that time, Clinton has lost three points while Trump has gained seven points.

The poll was taken entirely before Friday’s revelation that the FBI is taking “appropriate investigative steps” after discovering more emails pertaining to its investigation into Clinton’s private email server.

Trump delighted in the agency’s announcement, while those close to Clinton expressed anger and disbelief.

The poll was conducted Oct. 24-27 among 1,148 likely voters. It has a margin of error of three points.

COMMENT:  If the poll is accurate, Hillary Clinton was in near collapse during the week.  Apparently, from other reporting, we learn that the poll detected shifts in the definition of who the likely voters were.  We have, during this campaign, wondered who would actually vote.

And Trump had an unusually good week, giving several well-received, serious speeches.

The election is a week from Tuesday.  We have yet to measure the impact of Comey's letter.  It may have no impact at all.  It may, though, reinforce previous doubts about Clinton.  Or...there may be a sympathy backlash, drawn from the belief that she's being treated unfairly.

It is ugly stuff.  But what looked like a relatively easy win for Hillary Clinton may not be so easy after all, and may not be a win.

October 29,  2016     Permalink

OCTOBER 28,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

JOE SAYS NO – FROM LONDON'S TELEGRAPH:   U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has ruled out serving as Hillary Clinton’s Secretary of State, should she win the presidency.  "I'll do anything I can if Hillary's elected to help her, but I don't want to remain in the administration," Mr Biden said in an interview with NBC's KBJR affiliate in Duluth, Minnesota.  "I have no intention of staying involved. I have a lot of things to do, but I'll help her if I can in any way I can," he added.  On Thursday,it had been reported that Mrs Clinton's campaign was considering Mr Biden for Secretary of State if she wins the Nov. 8 election.  In fact, it had been reported that he was her first choice.  The whole thing is baffling.  Why leak his name before checking with him?

NO HONOR – FROM DAILY CALLER:   The University of Missouri (MU) and University of Oregon have been dubiously honored as the worst major colleges in the country when it comes to respecting diverse viewpoints.  The “honor” comes from a new ranking by Heterodox Academy, a non-profit founded earlier this year by several academics concerned with the overwhelming ideological homogeneity of American colleges.  In its newly-released Guide to Colleges, Heterodox scores the top 150 schools in the U.S. (according to U.S. News and World Report’s ranking of national universities) on four factors indicating their overall openness to minority political viewpoints.  At least there are those who are fighting back, and exposing the dry rot in American higher education.

ANTHEM PROTESTS COSTING NFL BIG TIME – FROM CBS BOSTON:   BOSTON (CBS) — There are many reasons why the NFL’s ratings are down in 2016. You may be dismissive of the very idea that the backlash to the national anthem protests, sparked by the 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick, has played a role in the NFL’s TV ratings, which have dropped by about 12 percent year-over-year. To continue to dismiss that is to blatantly ignore legitimate data on the subject.  A fresh poll from Seton Hall surveyed 841 adults across the U.S. Each respondent was asked to identify seven separate factors as a reason for the NFL ratings drop, allowing them to answer “yes” or “no” for each of them. The leading factor, according to the poll, was the national anthem protests, which scored “yes” at a rate of 56 percent.   The outrage of the fans is well placed.  Players have a right to protest on their own time, and in their own space.  They have no automatic right to protest while wearing a team uniform on the team's time, and before a captive, paying audience. 

October 28, 2016       Permalink

WELL, THIS IS ODD – AT 10:16 A.M. ET:  We give you this for its fascination value.  I don't have anything to back it up, but, hey, you never know... From CNBC:   

An artificial intelligence (AI) system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race to the White House.

MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, the founder of Indian start-up Genic.ai. It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democrat and Republican Primaries.

Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama's peak in 2008 – the year he came into power – by 25 percent.

COMMENT:  Well, we'll see.  Miracles happen in politics.  And, as the cliché goes, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.

October 28, 2016       Permalink

CURSED FROM THE START – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:   If Hillary Clinton is elected, what will she face?  John Fund, one of the best political reporters around, argues that she will be tainted from the first day, due to the revelations about her that have come out.  From National Review: 

Critics of WikiLeaks claim its leaking of sleazy Clinton e-mails is serving the interests of Vladimir Putin, who wants Donald Trump to win the 2016 election. But, if Putin is in fact behind the WikiLeaks dumps, he may actually be making a safer bet. Should Trump lose, a weakened Hillary Clinton will take office with a big chunk of the American people viewing her as illegitimate and many others as untrustworthy in foreign affairs. That kind of geopolitical advantage could be priceless.

The latest WikiLeaks revelation is a 2011 memo from top Clinton aide Doug Band outlining conflicts of interest at the Clinton Foundation while Hillary was secretary of state. It essentially is a confession of massive charity fraud and corruption. As Politico reports: “The memo at one point refers bluntly to the money-making part of Clinton’s life as ‘Bill Clinton Inc.’ and notes that in at least one case a company — global education firm Laureate International Universities — began paying Clinton personally after first being a donor to the Clinton Foundation.”

On MSNBC’s Morning Joe, former Clinton Treasury official and Hillary defender Steve Rattner didn’t even bother to swat back at the sleazy appearance of the revelations. He insisted nothing illegal had been done, but admitted that, if elected, Hillary faces “continuing, ongoing investigations.” Jason Chaffetz, the Republican chairman of the House Oversight Committee, confirmed that yesterday: “It’s a target-rich environment. Even before we get to Day One, we’ve got two years’ worth of material already lined up. She has four years of history at the State Department, and it ain’t good.”

COMMENT:  No doubt about it.  Hillary Clinton would have to start anew, trying to win the trust of the American people.  Winning that trust was one of Ronald Reagan's greatest achievements.  Clinton is no Reagan.  Winning trust is not on her resumé.  She has no practice. 

Read the whole thing.  Fund nails it.

October 28, 2016       Permalink

THE OUTLIERS – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  We are one week and four days away from a national election.  The RealClearPolitics of polls shows Clinton up 5.2%, just a bit lower than where she's been recently, but still with a substantial lead.  Making up that lead in ten days, especially when Trump is such a poor candidate, would be extremely difficult.

As readers know, we've been following the "dissenting" polls – IBD/TIFF, Rasmussen, and L.A. Times.  Where do they stand this morning?

IBD/TIFF: 

Hillary Clinton extended her lead over Donald Trump to three points in the latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll, 44%-41%, in a four-way race. She's also up three points unrounded, 43.8%-40.8%, up from 1.2 points the day before.

Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 7.3% while Green Party nominee Jill Stein has fallen to 1.8%, with 2.2% for "other" and 4.1% for "not sure."

In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads 45.2%-41.8%, or 3.4 points.

I'm not sure we can still call IBD an outlier, as it's moving closer to Clinton's overall lead.  Fox, too, puts Clinton three points ahead.

RASMUSSEN: 

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are dead even in the latest White House Watch survey.

The new national telephone and online survey shows Clinton and Trump each with 45% support among Likely U.S. Voters. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has fallen to a new low of three percent (3%), while Green Party candidate Jill Stein earns two percent (2%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

But the Los Angeles Times still has a razor-thin lead for Donald Trump, 45.2% to 44.5%. 

COMMENT:  Please note that Both Clinton and Trump are still in the forties.  In only two national polls, ABC and Pew, does Clinton hit 50%, and only that. 

We have an unhappy electorate, but my belief stands:  Any respectable Republican candidate could have defeated Hillary Clinton, and probably defeated her decisively.  Peggy Noonan wrote today that both parties have let America down.  So true, so true.  Hear anyone cheering?

October 28,  2016     Permalink